Italian political crisis: likely outcomes

1. The reasons we have had the two successive Conte governments is that at no time since the previous general elections, polls have credibly indicated a parliamentary outcome conducive to a “suitable” successor to Mattarella in  a snap election. The post…

Biden’s Biggest Decision

Joe Biden’s new administration faces a murderers’ row of hard decisions on everything from controlling the Southern border to dealing with Iran. But one choice dominates all of them: Does Biden intend to govern from the center-left or to make…

Georgia Senate election update

Update: 70,000 new registered voters from November to December threw my model off. Modeled party early voting from Targetsmart had the GOP up 47.5% to 45.7%. In line with Albert’s calculations that the Dems could not replicate voter drive in…