Category: Uncategorized

RBG, RFS and Other Political Economic Indicators Emerging

Mid-September Election Update Key signals: Stimulus BillTrump SCOTUS PicksRFS Waivers have come to fruitionContinued ProtestsFarm, Airline and Auto packagesTargeted Market Stress Regardless of your personal politics, the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a loss to the nation. She was…

Labor Day Weekend 2020 Election Update

Signals: Flu symptoms as Covid in late September Riots increasing(NC, MI & PA) Stimulus Package Debates Lockdown vote suppression(colleges, riots) Outlook Trump continues his Reopen America strategy, focusing on job recreation and falling COVID numbers. I anticipated a move to…

The world to come: Revenge of the nation state and how internationalized debt politics is here to stay

The Covid-19 crisis has dealt a decisive blow to the political forces that sought to advance economic cosmopolitanism over the nation state. In the new politics, consumption will be subordinated to production – even if the present economic slump across…

Stabilization, Inflation, and the Coming Rotation

Never in the history of the internet has the word ‘unprecedented’ been Googled more than in 2020. It makes sense as 2020 is truly a ‘unique’ year as the global economy has suffered dramatically due to COVID-19 related shutdown measures.…

US Election Map Outlook

With only 3 weeks until early voting begins in swing states, polls are beginning to tighten from the unrealistic double digit Biden lead to more normal voter trends. Biden’s poll average lead in battleground states have been cut in half…

US Election Outlook: Next 60 Days

Stimulus Package COVID/FLU Uptick 5 States of Consequence GOP View: The market, Beltway and media are all focused on the impending Stimulus package being “negotiated” between the White House, McConnell and Pelosi. Pelosi and the Dem Senate had overplayed their…

US Election Update August

November 2020 Election Update Key Issues to note: RFS Waivers (rejection of 59 retroactive), Corn Politics Swap line cutbacks, market contraction mid September Mail-in and Early voting begin in September  Stimulus 2.0 fight Haley to the Trump poll rescue? Census…

US National Political Summer Outlook 2020

Key players: Biden/Harris(driven by Obama) vs Trump/Pence(Haley could slot in here for Pence if poll numbers dictate a move) Pelosi vs McConnell(Legislative fights for November election narratives) Legislation to watch:  Vote by Mail  Stimulus package phase 4 infrastructure bill fight…

Germany has made itself a country on which no one can rely

by Nicholas Glinsman Germany, 75 years after its crushing defeat, goes from strength to strength, shrugging off challenges like a cartoon superhero. Its economy is the strongest in the EU, its trading surplus is the largest in the world, its…