Category: Uncategorized

Italian political crisis: likely outcomes

1. The reasons we have had the two successive Conte governments is that at no time since the previous general elections, polls have credibly indicated a parliamentary outcome conducive to a “suitable” successor to Mattarella in  a snap election. The post…

Biden’s Biggest Decision

Joe Biden’s new administration faces a murderers’ row of hard decisions on everything from controlling the Southern border to dealing with Iran. But one choice dominates all of them: Does Biden intend to govern from the center-left or to make…

Brief: The Fink-Powell Fed Making Trump’s Market Irrelevant

Eyes opened when the news came out that Steve Mnuchin had requested the Fed return unused stimulus money. Money that Powell and Fink have used to artificially boost the market, making Trump’s declarations that he was the sole person responsible…

EU Economy: Dude, where’s my money?

Why the attempt at suppressing the reward of dispossessing oneself (i.e., “Interest”) failed… and where has that money gone. It sometimes happens. You are tired, distracted, scared, nauseous…. and that’s when it hits you, a different way of looking at…

Political Calculations for Trump Election Drama with Fiscal Commentary

  Political calculations in the next 30 days ·         Timetable of events leading to the electoral college vote on December 14 ·         But perhaps instead of flipping 6 states, it’s time for the ‘faithless electors’ ·         Is a Fiscal Stimulus Deal Possible by Year-End? ·         US…

Overview assuming a Biden Administration

For Trump: Neutral. Losing in a manner that is extremely questionable in people’s eyes will only make him a martyr. He will use this to grow a new media and political organisation for the future. For Dems: Absolute disaster. Trading…

How not to deal with radical uncertainty

We have no doubt that the pollsters will try to find a way to tell us that they got it right after all, or at least that the results were not as they looked. Economic forecasters did the same thing…

Final 2020 Election Update – Expanded

Key Issues ·         Stimulus Passage/Delay Political Calculations – see above ·         Corn/RFS Waivers ·         Polling vs Reg Voter Statistics ·         Battleground States(Latino & Black Male vote collapse) ·         Obama MIA(PA late, now FL over Mich?) ·         Covid vs Economy ·         Electoral College prediction – 306 electoral votes…

Final 2020 Election Update

Key Issues:  -Stimulus Passage/Delay Political Calculations -Corn/RFS Waivers -Biden Oil Industry Threat -Polling vs Registered Voter Statistics -Battleground States & Voter Demographics  -Obama’s Tepid Support -Covid vs Economy Stimulus continues to be the focal point for both parties on the…