Brussels is trembling at the prospect of a Marine Le Pen winning France. Her promise to leave the EU would no doubt spell the end of it.
However, France is not America and Le Pen is no Trump. Her recent headlines include a “shock poll lead” by Ipsos, but failed to include both Fillon or Juppe. The National Front is not a new phenomenon and has already had their “Trump moment” years ago along with Italy, Austria and others who have seen right wing parties win significant gains.
As of today, and barring major economic or terrorist events, both Fillion or Juppe would win over Le Pen 62% to 38% average giving her a few points for “hidden votes”.
Recent election sample by BVA posted below.