It was a key, decisive moment for Emmanuel Macron when Francois Bayrou teamed up with him during the presidential election campaign in 2017. Bayrou, the eternal bridesmaid in French politics, gave up his own candidacy to back Macron, who was…
The Looming Republican Civil War
Trump vs the embedded GOP leadership, and the old guard will not win. After watching the impeachment trial in the Senate, we can now go back to being observers in the fight for control of the Republican Party. Since he left…
The Anglosphere holds the key to the future of international relations and the macro reconfiguration
As George Orwell so sagely put it, “to see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle”. Sadly, this is a battle most political risk analysts are in danger of losing. For, in obsessing about the unicorn…
Italian political crisis: likely outcomes
1. The reasons we have had the two successive Conte governments is that at no time since the previous general elections, polls have credibly indicated a parliamentary outcome conducive to a “suitable” successor to Mattarella in a snap election. The post…
Biden’s Biggest Decision
Joe Biden’s new administration faces a murderers’ row of hard decisions on everything from controlling the Southern border to dealing with Iran. But one choice dominates all of them: Does Biden intend to govern from the center-left or to make…
Biden picks up where Obama left off in the Middle East
Anthony Blinken returns to the White House, dropping the title of “Deputy” from his secretary of state role, now helming the State Department. Blinken also intends to bring on members from Obama’s administration to handle new efforts in Syria. During…