The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wraps up its annual summer retreat at the northern coastal town of Beidaihe. The meeting comes amid signs of dissent within the Chinese political system as the president, Xi Jinping, struggles to manage an intensifying…
Economy
Global risk scenarios
Risk scenarios Events may diverge from The Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecast in ways that affect global business operations. The main risks are represented by the following scenarios. Very high risk = greater than 40% probability that the scenario will occur…
Asia
Japan Deploys Flotilla to South China Sea
Three ships of Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) departed on August 26th for a two-month deployment to Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. A JMSDF statement says that the deployment seeks to improve its own operational capability and promote interoperability…
Iran
Iran likely to turn to Russia, Turkey, and China to offset sanctions, not risk war over Hormuz
Key Points Iran is trying to consolidate politically and appease protesters to prevent sanctions from destabilising the country; this risks backfiring and reducing leadership cohesion. Iran will turn to China, Russia, and Turkey to reduce the impact of sanctions, but…
Americas
Ortega regime stands firm as Nicaragua deteriorates
The president, Daniel Ortega, has, temporarily at least, gained the upper hand in Nicaragua’s three‑month‑old civil conflict. However, his ultimate victory is far from assured and as such he will continue to seek a negotiated solution to the political crisis. Dislodged…
China
What Do China’s Military Hawks Think of Trump?
Well-known hardliners react to the new U.S. security strategy and trade war. Unlike President Obama, who gives first priority to terrorism, Iran, and North Korea, President Trump labeled conventional security challenges posed by Russia and China as prime threats, which…