Category: Africa

Middle East and North Africa risk: Alert – Islamic State displays its reach

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The series of attacks that hit three countries on June 26th—France, Kuwait and Tunisia—has highlighted the growing global threat posed by Islamic State. The extreme jihadi group’s declaration of a self-styled caliphate in eastern Syria and western Iraq, and its…

Can the Islamic State Establish a Foothold in Mainland Egypt?

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Executive Summary The Islamic State, via its Sinai-based branch, Wilayat Sinai, continues to attack the Egyptian military and security services despite a surge in the number of army and security personnel. Northern Sinai is an ideal operational environment for an…

African nations gear up to counter Islamic terror groups

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Key Points New Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari is close to making good on his promise to attack Boko Haram, after months of intensive preparations. Unprecedented co-operation with, and assistance from, regional neighbours is likely to give Nigeria the chance to…

Al-Shabaab’s Foothold in Kenya’s Northeast

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On June 14, the Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen militant group (better known as al-Shabaab) launched a major attack on a Kenya Defense Force (KDF) camp in Lamu County. The attack failed badly and exposed the militant group’s weak military capabilities. However,…

Intensification of Libya’s civil war likely in 2015, increasing existing risks to oil and transportation assets

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IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review Libyan military soldiers sweep an area of Benghazi as they battle with Islamist extremist militias in the Libyan city on 30 October 2014. Source: PA Key Points Hardliners are taking increasing control of both of Libya’s…

Regional rivalries deepen divide in Libya

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EIU: The entrenchment of both sides in Libya’s low-level civil conflict would not have been possible without considerable outside support for each faction. The two major groupings—the official government based in Al Bayda in eastern Libya and the Libya Dawn…

Egypt: The Sisi phenomenon

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EIU: Egypt is due to witness its second presidential election since 2011, after three years of turmoil that has left most of its population of 85m people exhausted by economic hardship. The Presidential Election Commission will open the door for nominations…

Libya, Somalia raids show U.S. reach, problems

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* Libyan wanted for 1998 embassy bombings seized in Tripoli * Libyan prime minister seeks explanation for “kidnapping” * Somali port raid on al Shabaab fails to take target * Kerry: “Terrorist organisations can run but they can’t hide”

Operational world risk ratings review

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RATINGS CHANGES There were changes to risk scores in 47 countries during the latest monthly updating cycle of the Risk Briefing model. These led to upgrades of the overall score in only 18 cases, but there were 17 downgrades. In…