Midterm season is upon us. Congressional members and hopefuls are gearing up for a monumental fight for both the House and Senate majorities. The reality is that no matter what the Democrats are saying, they are nearly certain to lose the House majority, simply by redistricting realities that the GOP are about to employ. It is worth about 20 seats and puts any Dem who won with less than 2% at risk for further losses to Pelosi’s hope to retain leadership.
Moving onto the Senate races, this is where the biggest battles will be fought. There are 4 Senate seats from each party that are at risk and should get the most attention. These are:
- Warnock of Georgia
- Hassan of New Hampshire
- Kelly of Arizona
- Masto of Nevada
- North Carolina vacant seat
- Pennsylvania vacant seat
- Johnson of Wisconsin
- Rubio of Florida
As of today, I would eliminated Warnock from retaining his seat and put Kelly in safe Dem category as the Arizona GOP has made it a habit of nominating terrible candidates recently. Hassan and Masto’s futures depend on which candidate win’s the GOP primary and the state of the economy at the time. With rampant inflation, unemployment and COVID restrictions on the minds of voters, this will put both Dem incumbents on the back foot, especially concerning upcoming legislation from Biden. They cannot risk upsetting their small leads in their states.
The GOP will have a tough time retaining the North Carolina vacancy as the shifting of demographics has been steadily in favor of Democrats there. The Pennsylvania race will squarely come down to which party can drive voters out. The Dems here will be at a disadvantage as the economy is unlikely to have recovered in time. Rubio does have a tough challenger in Demings, but Florida has shifted more red and sending Demings there was a mistake that will bring her down a notch if she were to lose. She has a bright future without this race being a stain on her record.
As the economy stumbles and unemployment rises to over 20%, the Democrats will law blame squarely on the unvaccinated, pinning it to Florida, Texas and other GOP states. This is hardly the reality but with the media more than willing to play along, this narrative will be repeated throughout the fall during flu season and likely scare Democrat states into social distancing rules which would decimate what’s left of small businesses.
Attention now is on multiple bills being floated around and inevitably how these congressional members are handcuffed by election realities. Infrastructure bill will pass at some point, but the addition of 300 amendments shows you that both parties are desperate to gain more favor with their constituents. The bigger, and more contentious package, is the $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. This bill has next to no chance of passing as is in the Senate. It is far too progressive, its not fully paid for in any realistic way, and will cause more Democratic losses in the midterms. It is as simple as that.
The progressives are up in arms about even talk about cutting it down and Pelosi now has to adhere to their demands as her state has felt the migration of centrist dems away from her district, making it more progressive. Pelosi, being left out of the infrastructure negotiations, has countered saying that any bill must be done jointly with the budget and reconciliation bill for her to bring it to a vote in the House. This will force these packages to be delayed until at least October. As a response, the Fed/Treasury now will have to employ their own plans for the market by initiating more QE. This is completely opposite of the taper talk some of the Fed members have been trying to sell.