-Stimulus Passage/Delay Political Calculations
-Biden Oil Industry Threat
-Polling vs Registered Voter Statistics
-Battleground States & Voter Demographics
-Obama’s Tepid Support
-Covid vs Economy
Stimulus continues to be the focal point for both parties on the final stretch of the election. With early voting already started a month ago, at this point, the political damage has been done. Pelosi’s strategy to hold stimulus talks hostage have seemed to fail as a majority of polls blame her for the political games stalling stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. She now has a mutiny within her own party of members facing tough races and I forecast the Democrats to lose over 8 seats over this, mainly in Trump leaning 2016 districts.
Had Pelosi played ball weeks ago, she could have shored up her members and helped Senate Dems move closer to majority. McConnell has pounced on her miscalculations and now is eyeing to negate Democrat victories in Arizona and Colorado with a win in Michigan or Minnesota. A deal is likely to materialize over the weekend, but this is far too late to show results at the polls.
Corn politics still seems to be the biggest under the radar topic in the media. The US agriculture lobby is the most powerful in the Senate and continues to see bipartisan support in funding and legislation. The RFS waiver issue was settled as I have stated in September, which boosted Joni Ernst and solidified support to nearly 100,000 corn producing farms in the Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania region. The price was slightly below $300 when I sounded the alarm that this issue had to be done prior to early voting, while those rural communities now enjoy near $400 price.
Biden’s comments on eliminating the US oil industry during last nights debate will resonate with the corn industry who rely on ethanol boosting corn prices. This was a serious mistake by Biden that will cost him votes in not only oil producing states but corn country of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The biggest Twitter battle at the moment is the pro-polling fans showing Biden double digit leads vs pro-registration/early voting supporters showing the Republicans are surging. I have been vocal on ignoring polling coming out of COVID lockdowns where only phone or online polling is being conducted. This is the most error prone method to determine voter intentions with only 6% of the public willing to be polled. Turnout percentage with voter registration, top issues, and approval within the party of the candidate is far better indicator in our opinion to determine most likely outcome of races.
Polls have been publishing wild results showing Texas, Georgia, Iowa and other states in play. We completely dismiss these unrealistic outcomes and focus solely on the battleground states of Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The statistics from early voting has shown a drop in the African American turnout in key Democratic stronghold counties in Michigan and Pennsylvania with further evidence of Black males supporting Trump more than in 2016. I cannot stress how this, along with a collapse of non-Mexican Latino vote, makes Biden’s chances to win this election minimal at best. The strategy to only use COVID response against Trump’s economy was an absolute disaster and an obvious loser as people vote with their paycheck and rarely ideology. The fear inducing lockdowns have run their course as the public is desperate for normalcy.
Trump continues to out-perform his 2016 polling in these battleground states and Targetsmart data models show that the GOP are experiencing a surge that has surprised many within the Biden campaign and poll modeling outfits who had Biden winning at a 90%+ rate. Trump campaign has quietly addressed the auto sector pension issues, specifically Delphi, which only acts to boost votes in Michigan.
The Democrats have urged Barack Obama to finally show up on the campaign trail, however he decided to make one digital appearance in Philadelphia 2 days after registrations closed and instead of moving to Michigan where Biden is likely now losing, he decided to go to Florida where the race is all but over in the state. This only further solidifies my speculation that his selection of Biden and Harris was an intentional loss to set up Michelle Obama for 2024 and have 2020 as a massive fundraiser for a 2022 Senate majority strategy. Trump has been an absolute financial windfall for the Democrats as they have raised record amounts of money this cycle.
Advantage: Trump for 2020, Dems for 2022/2024
Prediction: Trump copy win of 2016
With many missteps and failure to capitalize on Trump’s public mistakes by the Biden camp, the most logical outcome considering all the data is a Trump re-election with Senate control still in the GOP’s hands while losing 2 seats. The House will remain in the Democrats control, but Nancy Pelosi’s miscalculations will cost her party seats and her leadership position. This will be a welcome result to the centrist Democrats who will use this loss as an excuse to purge some of the progressive elements in the party that have challenged the establishment for control. The GOP will have to contend with how to amicably separate itself from the Trump brand for 2022 and 2024, however, with Trump’s penchant for chaos and ego, this will not be easy and likely cost the GOP control of the Senate in 2022.
The Trump campaign were simplistic but efficient in taking their 2016 winning map/strategy and solidifying those numbers with an increased ground game resulting in a voter buffer of 100,000 to 200,000 new GOP voters in those swing states. Along with putting Biden on the defensive in Nevada and Minnesota, it has restricted him from making any gains that would threaten the Trump re-election bid.