With only 3 weeks until early voting begins in swing states, polls are beginning to tighten from the unrealistic double digit Biden lead to more normal voter trends. Biden’s poll average lead in battleground states have been cut in half and it is more likely that the margin of error from phone/internet polls are higher than usually due to covid restrictions.
If the election was held today, my prediction would be for a 2 electoral college vote victory as the map below by 270towin shows:
The first debate occurs in mid-September as Michigan and Pennsylvania begins their early voting. There is a possibility that Trump once again over-performs polling and could take both Pennsylvania and Minnesota, resulting in a convincing election win due to uneasy suburban voters over riots and taxation. However, the odds of this are small at this time. The map would look like this: