The risks of “retaliation” attacks appears to be extremely high after the death of Ossama Bin Laden, ESISC assesses.
Even not playing an operational role for years, OBL was an “iconic figure” for the world Jihad movement and had inspired thousands of followers and dozens of organizations and groups worldwide.
It must be underlined that the organizations and individuals directly associated to al-Qaeda were personnaly linked to OBL by a personnal oath to his person, the ba’ayt.
Thus, in addition to the rage his death will provoke, and the desire to show that the Jihad is still alive, a personnal motivation of revenge could lead to terrorists attacks.
We assess that such attacks could happen worldwide, but western interests in North Africa, Sahel, Middle East and Central Asia are at high risk.
U.S. interests could, obviously, be the first to be targeted, but other western, interests and “renegate governments” in the Muslim world are also at risk.