Trump at CPAC Trump makes his first political appearance at CPAC Feb 28. Fresh off impeachment 2.0 “victory”, Trump looks to make his political future a bit clearer in Orlando this weekend. The realization by Nikki Haley, Mitch McConnell and other GOP…
A former ally takes on Macron
It was a key, decisive moment for Emmanuel Macron when Francois Bayrou teamed up with him during the presidential election campaign in 2017. Bayrou, the eternal bridesmaid in French politics, gave up his own candidacy to back Macron, who was…
The Looming Republican Civil War
Trump vs the embedded GOP leadership, and the old guard will not win. After watching the impeachment trial in the Senate, we can now go back to being observers in the fight for control of the Republican Party. Since he left…
The Anglosphere holds the key to the future of international relations and the macro reconfiguration
As George Orwell so sagely put it, “to see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle”. Sadly, this is a battle most political risk analysts are in danger of losing. For, in obsessing about the unicorn…
Italian political crisis: likely outcomes
1. The reasons we have had the two successive Conte governments is that at no time since the previous general elections, polls have credibly indicated a parliamentary outcome conducive to a “suitable” successor to Mattarella in a snap election. The post…
Biden’s Biggest Decision
Joe Biden’s new administration faces a murderers’ row of hard decisions on everything from controlling the Southern border to dealing with Iran. But one choice dominates all of them: Does Biden intend to govern from the center-left or to make…