Key Points Iran is trying to consolidate politically and appease protesters to prevent sanctions from destabilising the country; this risks backfiring and reducing leadership cohesion. Iran will turn to China, Russia, and Turkey to reduce the impact of sanctions, but…
Americas
Ortega regime stands firm as Nicaragua deteriorates
The president, Daniel Ortega, has, temporarily at least, gained the upper hand in Nicaragua’s three‑month‑old civil conflict. However, his ultimate victory is far from assured and as such he will continue to seek a negotiated solution to the political crisis. Dislodged…
China
What Do China’s Military Hawks Think of Trump?
Well-known hardliners react to the new U.S. security strategy and trade war. Unlike President Obama, who gives first priority to terrorism, Iran, and North Korea, President Trump labeled conventional security challenges posed by Russia and China as prime threats, which…
Africa, China
China’s investment in West Africa challenges France for business in its former colonies
Ivory Coast is the main focus, while Chinese loans and contracts also proliferate in French-speaking Senegal, Mali, Niger and Togo. When Ivory Coast put out a tender to build a bridge over the lagoon in its commercial hub of Abidjan,…
Africa, China
The politics of ports in the Horn: War, peace and Red Sea rivalries
For over 25 years, maritime strategy and port development in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden appeared relatively static. Eritrea looked inwards, neglecting its coast. Djibouti flourished, lucratively embracing Ethiopia’s trade, overseas investors and foreign military bases. Somalia’s shores…
Central Asia, Russia
Moldova’s Democratic Façade Crumbles as Supreme Court Invalidates Democratic Election
Jamestown: On June 25, the Supreme Court of the Republic of Moldova denied opposition candidate Andrei Nastase (leader of the Dignity and Truth Platform Party) legal recourse, thus upholding the June 21 decision of the Appellate Court to invalidate the…